22 min readPrediction Markets Comparison 2026: Polymarket vs All Platforms
Comprehensive 2026 comparison of all major prediction markets: Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Metaculus, Manifold Markets, Betfair, and more. This guide analyzes fees, liquidity, market selection, geographic restrictions, and helps you choose the best platform for your trading style. Understanding platform differences is crucial for maximizing profitability and finding the right markets for your strategy.
The prediction market landscape has evolved significantly in 2026. Polymarket dominates with $50B+ in cumulative volume, while regulated platforms like Kalshi and PredictIt serve US markets, and community-driven platforms like Metaculus and Manifold offer free, reputation-based predictions. Each platform has distinct advantages: Polymarket for serious traders seeking liquidity and low fees, Kalshi/PredictIt for US residents, Metaculus/Manifold for research and fun. High search volume: "best prediction market 2026", "polymarket vs kalshi" (18+ searches/month combined). Professional traders use analytics platforms like PolyTrack Pro to track which wallets profit most across different platforms, revealing winning strategies and optimal market selection.
🔑 Key Differences Between Platforms
- • Polymarket: Highest liquidity ($50B+), lowest fees (0% maker), crypto-based (USDC)
- • Kalshi: Regulated US platform, fiat USD, curated markets, 2-5% commission
- • PredictIt: US-regulated, political focus, 10% commission on winnings
- • Metaculus: Free, reputation-based, academic/technical focus, no real money
- • Manifold: Free play money (Mana), community-curated, open-source
- • Betfair: Traditional sports betting exchange, high liquidity for sports
Platform Comparison Table
| Platform | Money Type | Volume | Fees | Markets | Geographic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | USDC (crypto) | $50B+ | 0% maker, up to 3% taker | Any topic (politics, sports, crypto, etc.) | Restricted: No US |
| Kalshi | USD (fiat) | Lower | 2-5% commission | Curated (politics, economics, sports) | ✅ US-licensed |
| PredictIt | USD (fiat) | Moderate | 10% on winnings | Political focus | ✅ US-licensed |
| Metaculus | Reputation points | N/A | Free | Academic/technical | ✅ Global |
| Manifold | Mana (play money) | Lower | Free | Community-curated | ✅ Global |
| Betfair | USD/EUR (fiat) | High (sports) | 2-5% commission | Sports betting | Restricted: Some US states |
Polymarket: Deep Dive
Polymarket is the dominant prediction market in 2026, with over $50B in cumulative volume. It's a crypto-native platform using USDC (USD Coin) on Polygon blockchain, offering the highest liquidity, lowest fees, and widest market selection.
Advantages
- • Highest Liquidity: $50B+ cumulative volume, deepest orderbooks, tightest spreads
- • Lowest Fees: 0% maker fees, up to 3% taker fees (vs 2-10% on other platforms)
- • Widest Market Selection: Politics, sports, crypto prices, current events, niche topics
- • Crypto-Native: Fast settlements, low transaction costs, programmable money
- • No Geographic Restrictions (except US): Available globally, no KYC for trading
- • Advanced Features: Limit orders, API access, whale tracking via analytics platforms
Disadvantages
- • Not Available in US: Restricted after 2022 CFTC settlement
- • Crypto Requirements: Need USDC and crypto wallet (Polygon network)
- • No Regulation: Unregulated platform (not necessarily a disadvantage for some)
- • Learning Curve: Requires understanding crypto wallets, Polygon, gas fees
Best For
Serious traders seeking highest liquidity and lowest fees, crypto users comfortable with USDC, international users, and those wanting access to niche markets unavailable elsewhere.
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Kalshi: Deep Dive
Kalshi is a US-regulated prediction market licensed by the CFTC. It raised $1B+ in funding and partnered with CNN in 2026, offering fiat USD trading with curated markets focused on politics, economics, and sports.
Advantages
- • US-Regulated: Licensed by CFTC, legal for US residents
- • Fiat USD: No crypto required, traditional banking integration
- • Curated Markets: High-quality, vetted markets from Kalshi team
- • Mainstream Partnerships: CNN partnership increases visibility and trust
- • Simple Onboarding: Traditional signup, no crypto wallet setup
Disadvantages
- • Lower Liquidity: Significantly less volume than Polymarket
- • Higher Fees: 2-5% commission vs Polymarket's 0% maker
- • Limited Market Selection: Only curated markets, can't create custom markets
- • US-Only: Restricted to US residents
- • KYC Required: Identity verification necessary
Best For
US residents seeking regulated prediction markets, traditional traders uncomfortable with crypto, and those wanting curated, high-quality markets without the noise of open markets.
PredictIt: Deep Dive
PredictIt is a US-regulated prediction market focused primarily on political markets. It's operated by Victoria University of Wellington and licensed by the CFTC.
Advantages
- • US-Regulated: Legal for US residents, CFTC-licensed
- • Political Focus: Best selection of political markets in US
- • Fiat USD: No crypto required
- • Educational Mission: Operated by university for research
Disadvantages
- • High Fees: 10% commission on winnings (highest of all platforms)
- • Limited Markets: Primarily political, very few non-political markets
- • Lower Liquidity: Less volume than Polymarket or even Kalshi
- • US-Only: Restricted to US residents
- • $850 Limit: Maximum $850 per market per user (CFTC requirement)
Best For
US residents focused on political prediction markets, those comfortable with higher fees in exchange for regulation, and political junkies seeking US election markets.
Metaculus: Deep Dive
Metaculus is a free, reputation-based prediction platform focused on academic and technical questions. It doesn't use real money but instead tracks prediction accuracy through reputation scores.
Advantages
- • Free: No money required, no fees
- • Academic Focus: High-quality, technical questions
- • Reputation System: Tracks prediction accuracy over time
- • Global Access: Available worldwide, no restrictions
- • Research Value: Excellent for testing prediction skills
Disadvantages
- • No Real Money: Can't profit from accurate predictions
- • Limited Incentives: Only reputation, no financial motivation
- • Academic Focus: Less relevant for trading/sports/politics
- • Lower Engagement: Less active than money-based platforms
Best For
Researchers, academics, those wanting to practice prediction skills risk-free, and anyone interested in technical/academic questions without financial stakes.
Manifold Markets: Deep Dive
Manifold Markets is a free, open-source prediction market using "Mana" (play money). It's community-driven with open market creation, offering a fun, risk-free way to engage with prediction markets.
Advantages
- • Free: No real money, no fees
- • Open Market Creation: Anyone can create markets
- • Community-Driven: Vibrant community, fun atmosphere
- • Global Access: Available worldwide
- • Open Source: Transparent, community-owned
Disadvantages
- • No Real Money: Can't profit from accurate predictions
- • Play Money: Less serious, lower accuracy incentives
- • Lower Liquidity: Less volume than real money platforms
- • Market Quality: Open creation means some low-quality markets
Best For
Those wanting to try prediction markets risk-free, community enthusiasts, developers interested in open-source platforms, and anyone wanting to create custom markets.
Betfair: Deep Dive
Betfair is a traditional sports betting exchange with high liquidity for sports markets. It's not a pure prediction market but operates similarly, allowing users to back and lay bets.
Advantages
- • High Sports Liquidity: Excellent liquidity for major sports events
- • Exchange Model: Can both back and lay (bet against) outcomes
- • Regulated: Licensed in multiple jurisdictions
- • Fiat USD/EUR: Traditional currency, no crypto
- • Sports Focus: Best for serious sports bettors
Disadvantages
- • Limited to Sports: No political, crypto, or other markets
- • Higher Fees: 2-5% commission
- • Geographic Restrictions: Not available in all US states
- • Not Pure Prediction Market: Focused on sports betting, not forecasting
Best For
Serious sports bettors, those wanting exchange-style betting with back/lay options, and users seeking high liquidity for major sports events. See our detailed Polymarket vs Betfair comparison.
💡 Track Which Platforms Actually Generate Profits
Understanding which platforms and strategies consistently profit requires tracking performance across thousands of trades. PolyTrack Pro analyzes which wallets profit most on Polymarket, revealing winning patterns, optimal market selection, and strategies used by the platform's most successful traders across different market types.
Learn from what actually works. Try PolyTrack Pro free for 3 days - no credit card required.
Which Platform Should You Choose?
For Serious Traders (Non-US)
Choose Polymarket for:
- • Highest liquidity ($50B+ volume)
- • Lowest fees (0% maker, up to 3% taker)
- • Widest market selection (politics, sports, crypto, current events)
- • Advanced features (API access, whale tracking)
For US Residents
Choose Kalshi or PredictIt:
- • Kalshi: Best for general markets, lower fees (2-5%), curated quality
- • PredictIt: Best for political markets, higher fees (10% on winnings)
- • Both are US-licensed and legal for US residents
For Fun/Research
Choose Metaculus or Manifold:
- • Metaculus: Academic/technical focus, reputation-based, free
- • Manifold: Community-driven, open market creation, play money
- • Both are free and great for learning without financial risk
For Sports Betting
Choose Polymarket (international) or Betfair:
- • Polymarket: Lower fees (0% maker), can track whale positions
- • Betfair: Higher sports liquidity, exchange model (back/lay)
Fee Comparison: Real Example
Scenario: $1,000 profitable bet on "Candidate X wins election"
Polymarket (Limit Order - Maker):
- • Entry fee: 0% = $0
- • Exit fee: 0% = $0
- • Total fees: $0
Kalshi:
- • Commission: 3% on $1,000 = $30
- • Total fees: $30
PredictIt:
- • Commission: 10% on $1,000 winnings = $100
- • Total fees: $100
Metaculus/Manifold:
- • Total fees: $0 (but no real money)
2026 Trends and Future Outlook
- • Polymarket Dominance: Continues to dominate with $50B+ cumulative volume, expanding into new market categories
- • Kalshi Growth: Raised $1B+ in funding, partnered with CNN, expanding market selection
- • Regulatory Clarity: US platforms (Kalshi, PredictIt) gaining legitimacy, potentially more US options in future
- • Metaculus Expansion: Growing into more technical markets, increased academic collaboration
- • Cross-Platform Arbitrage: Opportunities growing as multiple platforms offer similar markets with different prices
- • Crypto Integration: More platforms considering crypto for lower fees and faster settlements
Conclusion
Choosing the right prediction market platform depends on your location, trading goals, and risk tolerance. Polymarket offers the best combination of liquidity, fees, and market selection for serious traders outside the US. US residents should consider Kalshi or PredictIt for regulated options, while those seeking risk-free practice can use Metaculus or Manifold. Betfair excels for sports betting with high liquidity.
Always consider fees, liquidity, market selection, and geographic restrictions when choosing. For Polymarket traders, use analytics platforms like PolyTrack Pro to track which wallets profit most, revealing winning strategies and optimal market selection across different platforms.
Related Resources
Frequently Asked Questions
Polymarket has the lowest fees: 0% for maker orders (limit orders) and up to 3% for taker orders (market orders). This compares to 2-5% commission on Kalshi, 10% on winnings at PredictIt, and 2-5% on Betfair. Metaculus and Manifold are free but use play money (reputation/points) rather than real money.
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