10 min readTrump Deportation Markets: 250K-500K Most Likely at 47% Odds
Trump's deportation markets are among Polymarket's most active, with traders pricing 250K-500K deportations at 47% odds for 2025. ICE is averaging 1,100 arrests per day—well short of the 3,000/day target. Here's the complete market breakdown.
Current Deportation Market Odds
2025 Deportation Volume Markets
| Target Range | Odds | vs 2024 Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Under 250,000 | 18% | Below 2024 |
| 250,000 - 500,000 | 47% | ~1-2x 2024 |
| 500,000 - 750,000 | 24% | ~2-3x 2024 |
| 750,000+ | 8% | ~3x+ 2024 |
| 2,000,000+ | 3% | Campaign promise |
2024 Baseline
For reference, ICE removed 271,484 non-citizens in fiscal year 2024 under the Biden administration.
Current ICE Operations
Arrest Pace (December 2025)
- Current pace: ~1,100 arrests per day
- Administration target: 3,000 arrests per day
- Gap: Running at ~37% of stated goal
- Surge since inauguration: Arrests have soared vs 2024 levels
ICE Resources
| ERO Officers | ~6,000 |
| Detention bed capacity | ~41,000 |
| Deportation flights/day | Variable |
| Receiving country cooperation | Mixed |
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Executive Order Markets
Day 1 Executive Order (Resolved)
Market on Trump signing deportation executive order on January 20, 2025 resolved to Yes.
- • Declared national emergency at southern border
- • Invoked Alien Enemies Act for gang deportations
- • Ended catch-and-release policies
- • Reinstated Remain in Mexico program
First 100 Days Market
Polymarket showed 90% odds Trump would sign deportation executive order in first 100 days—this resolved to Yes with multiple orders signed.
Tren de Aragua Operations
High-Profile Deportation Program
Markets reacted to announcement of 261 alleged Tren de Aragua (Venezuelan gang) members being deported to El Salvador:
- • First use of Alien Enemies Act since WWII
- • Deportees sent to El Salvador's CECOT mega-prison
- • Agreement with Bukele administration
- • Legal challenges ongoing
Why 2M+ Target Is Unlikely
Logistical Constraints
- ICE capacity: Current infrastructure can't process 2M/year
- Detention beds: Only ~41,000 available nationally
- Flight limitations: Deportation flights require receiving country cooperation
- Legal processing: Immigration courts already backlogged
Country Cooperation Issues
- Venezuela: Limited diplomatic relations
- China: Historically refuses to accept deportees
- Cuba: Minimal repatriation agreements
- Central America: Most cooperative but capacity-limited
Market Implications
Related Policy Markets
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Border wall funding in 2025 | 78% |
| End birthright citizenship attempt | 82% |
| Mass deportation military involvement | 45% |
| Immigration court case dismissed | 34% |
Trading Strategies
Market Analysis
- • 250-500K range favored: 47% odds reflects ~2x 2024 levels
- • Fade the 2M target: Only 3% odds, likely appropriately priced
- • Watch ICE data: Monthly removal statistics are public
- • Legal challenges: Court injunctions could pause operations
Key Data Sources
- ICE ERO statistics: Monthly and annual removal data
- CBP encounter data: Border crossing statistics
- EOIR immigration courts: Case processing numbers
- News reporting: Axios, Reuters track operations closely
Key Takeaways
- 250K-500K deportations in 2025 priced at 47% odds (most likely range)
- ICE currently arresting ~1,100/day vs 3,000/day target
- 2024 baseline: 271,484 removals under Biden
- 2M+ campaign promise has only 3% odds—logistically near-impossible
- Day 1 executive order resolved Yes as expected
- Legal challenges and country cooperation remain wildcards
Track Policy Market Whales
PolyTrack monitors whale positions in immigration policy markets—see how large traders are positioning on deportation targets.
Frequently Asked Questions
250,000-500,000 deportations is the most likely range at 47% odds. This represents roughly 1-2x the 2024 baseline of 271,484 removals.
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