What happened to Bonnie Blue in Indonesia?

Bonnie Blue (Tia Billinger) was detained in Bali on December 5, 2025 during a police raid. She was arrested along with 17 male tourists over alleged pornography production related to her "BangBus" tour targeting Australian schoolies. Her passport was confiscated and she remains under investigation.

Will Bonnie Blue go to prison in Indonesia?

According to immigration lawyers, Bonnie Blue is more likely to be deported and banned from Indonesia rather than prosecuted. While Indonesian pornography laws carry up to 15 years imprisonment, authorities typically deport foreigners in similar cases once media attention subsides.

What are the Polymarket odds on Bonnie Blue leaving Indonesia?

The Polymarket prediction market currently shows approximately 65% odds that Bonnie Blue will leave Indonesia by December 31, 2025. However, analysis suggests this may be overpriced given the 22-day timeline and holiday period bureaucratic slowdown.

How long does deportation take in Indonesia?

Indonesian deportation can take anywhere from days to weeks depending on case complexity. Foreigners may be held in detention rooms for up to 30 days. The year-end holiday period (Dec 25-Jan 1) typically slows government processing significantly.

When will the Bonnie Blue Indonesia market resolve?

The Polymarket resolves on December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. For YES resolution, Bonnie Blue must be confirmed to have landed in a non-Indonesian country by a consensus of credible reporting before the deadline.

Is Bonnie Blue still in custody?

As of December 9, 2025, Bonnie Blue has been released from police custody but transferred to immigration authorities. Her passport remains confiscated and she cannot leave Indonesia voluntarily. No formal charges have been filed yet.

Bonnie Blue Indonesia Polymarket Analysis | Will She Leave by Dec 31?

One of Polymarket's most unusual markets just opened: Will Bonnie Blue leave Indonesia by December 31, 2025? With the British OnlyFans creator detained in Bali over pornography charges, this market combines breaking news, legal analysis, and bureaucratic timing. Here's a data-driven breakdown of the odds.

The Market

Polymarket has opened a market on whether Bonnie Blue (Tia Billinger) will leave Indonesia by December 31, 2025.

Current Odds

~65% YES

Resolution

Dec 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET

Resolves YES if confirmed she has left Indonesia by any means (plane, boat) before deadline.

What Happened: The Facts

The Arrest (December 5, 2025)

Bali police raided a rental property and detained Bonnie Blue, a 26-year-old British adult content creator, along with 17 male tourists aged 19-40. The arrest followed her "BangBus" tour targeting Australian schoolies (high school graduates) vacationing in Bali.

Evidence Seized:

The "Bang Bus" vehicle
Cameras and USB drives
Condoms and sexual enhancement pills
Her passport

Current Status (December 9, 2025)

Released from police custody — but transferred to immigration authorities
Passport confiscated — cannot leave voluntarily
Under active investigation — along with 4 British nationals and 1 Australian
No formal charges filed yet

Legal Exposure

Indonesia's pornography laws carry severe penalties:

Maximum sentence: 15 years imprisonment
Maximum fine: 6 billion rupiah (~$380,000 USD)

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What the Experts Say

Legal Expert Opinion

"If found guilty, Blue is likely to be deported and banned from entering Indonesia ever again instead of being prosecuted and imprisoned."

— Philo Dellano, Managing Partner at PNB Immigration (Jakarta)

Dellano also suggested that authorities may "wait for public attention to subside and then move to resolve the case quietly, possibly in early 2026."

This is the key insight. Indonesian authorities have a pattern of:

Making a public example during high-profile arrests
Quietly deporting once media attention fades
Avoiding costly, drawn-out prosecutions of foreigners

Timeline Analysis: The December 31 Math

Indonesian Deportation Process

Stage	Duration
Immigration detention room	Up to 30 days max
If complications arise	Transfer to Detention Center
Deportation processing	Days to weeks
Flight arrangement	Variable (foreigner often must pay)

Key Dates

Today: December 9, 2025
Days remaining: 22 days
Dec 10: Additional questioning scheduled for detained men
Dec 25-Jan 1: Indonesian holiday period (Christmas + New Year)

Bureaucratic Reality

Indonesia's government offices operate on reduced capacity during:

December 25: Christmas (national holiday)
December 26-31: Year-end holiday period
January 1: New Year's Day

Even if authorities decide to deport her, processing during the final week of December is unlikely.

The Case for NO (Before Dec 31)

Passport seized — She literally cannot board a plane
Active investigation — Multiple people still being questioned
Holiday slowdown — Government offices wind down Dec 25-31
Expert opinion — Immigration lawyer suggests "early 2026" resolution
High-profile case — Authorities unlikely to rush and appear lenient
Only 22 days — Indonesian bureaucracy rarely moves this fast

The Case for YES (Before Dec 31)

Already released from custody — Not formally charged
Deportation precedent — Indonesia often deports rather than prosecutes
Political incentive — Resolve before it drags into 2026
No evidence of distribution — Key legal distinction
Similar past cases — Quick deportations after initial media circus

Historical Precedent

Indonesia has a track record of deporting foreign content creators rather than prosecuting:

Foreign influencers violating visa terms → typically deported within 2-4 weeks
Pornography-adjacent cases → deportation + lifetime ban vs. prison time
High-profile arrests → resolved quietly once media moves on

However, the holiday timing makes this case different. Even fast-tracked deportations require immigration paperwork, flight booking, passport release authorization, and multiple department sign-offs.

Doing all this between Christmas and New Year's Eve is optimistic.

Market Efficiency Analysis

At ~65% YES, the market implies better-than-even odds she leaves by Dec 31.

Assessment

This feels too high given:

• 22-day window
• Holiday period bureaucratic slowdown
• Passport still held by authorities
• No charges = no resolution timeline
• Expert suggesting "early 2026"

Fair value estimate: 30-40% YES

The market may be overweighting the "deportation likely" angle without properly discounting the timeline constraints.

Resolution Criteria Details

From the market rules:

"If departing by plane, she must be confirmed exiting the aircraft in a non-Indonesian country"

This means:

Boarding a plane isn't enough
She must be confirmed landed elsewhere
"Consensus of credible reporting" required

Given potential holiday news blackouts, even a Dec 30 deportation might not be confirmed by Dec 31 11:59 PM ET.

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Key Catalysts to Watch

Bullish for YES

• Announcement of deportation proceedings
• Passport returned to her
• Charges dropped or investigation closed

Bearish for YES

• Formal charges filed
• Extended detention ordered
• Court proceedings scheduled for 2026

Bottom Line

The Smart Money Case: NO at Current Prices

• Experts say early 2026
• Holiday period creates bureaucratic friction
• 22 days is tight for Indonesian immigration process
• ~65% YES is likely overpriced

Risk: If Indonesia surprises with a fast deportation to make a statement before year-end, YES wins. But that's not how their system typically operates.

Disclaimer: This is analysis, not financial advice. NFA. DYOR. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss.

Bonnie Blue Indonesia Market: A Data-Driven Polymarket Analysis