11 min readTrump Cabinet Predictions: 86% Odds of Early Departure
Trump's second-term cabinet picks are generating massive Polymarket volume, with markets on confirmation odds, early departures, and controversial nominations. Here's the complete breakdown of December 2025 cabinet prediction markets.
Cabinet Departure Predictions
Will a Cabinet Member Leave by April 2025?
Markets strongly expect at least one cabinet member to resign, be fired, or fail confirmation within Trump's first 100 days.
Most At-Risk Nominations
| Nominee | Position | Confirmation Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | Defense Secretary | 52% |
| RFK Jr. | HHS Secretary | 67% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | DNI | 71% |
| Kash Patel | FBI Director | 74% |
| Matt Gaetz | AG (withdrawn) | Withdrawn |
Pete Hegseth: The Closest Call
The Defense Secretary nomination is the most contested cabinet battle, with Polymarket odds hovering around 50-55% for confirmation:
Key Concerns
- Sexual assault allegations: 2017 incident, settled with accuser
- Alcohol concerns: Reports of drinking issues at Fox News events
- Management experience: Never run large organization
- Second marriage affair: Personal life scrutiny
Republican Swing Votes
| Senator | State | Likely Vote |
|---|---|---|
| Lisa Murkowski | Alaska | Likely No |
| Susan Collins | Maine | Undecided |
| Joni Ernst | Iowa | Concerns raised |
| Mitch McConnell | Kentucky | Defense hawk concerns |
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RFK Jr. and Health Policy
RFK Jr. HHS Confirmation
Despite vaccine skepticism controversies, markets expect confirmation with Republican majority support.
Related Markets
- FDA Commissioner change: 78% expect new leadership
- CDC vaccine policy changes: 65% expect schedule modifications
- Fluoride policy: 43% chance of federal recommendation change
- Raw milk federal legalization: 28% by end of 2025
Intelligence & Law Enforcement
Tulsi Gabbard (DNI)
- Confirmation odds: 71%
- Concerns: Syria visit, Russia/Assad comments, security clearance questions
- Support: Trump loyalty, military service, outsider appeal
Kash Patel (FBI Director)
- Confirmation odds: 74%
- Concerns: "Deep state" enemy list, lack of law enforcement experience
- 10-year term: Would serve through 2035
- FBI reform promises: Major restructuring expected
Confirmed Cabinet Members
High-Confidence Confirmations
| Nominee | Position | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | Secretary of State | 98% |
| Scott Bessent | Treasury Secretary | 95% |
| Pam Bondi | Attorney General | 92% |
| Howard Lutnick | Commerce Secretary | 89% |
Elon Musk & DOGE
While not a cabinet position, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) advisory role has generated significant market interest:
- Musk involvement duration: 62% expect him active through 2025
- $2T spending cut target: Only 12% believe achievable
- 5% budget reduction: 26% odds (down from initial expectations)
- Federal workforce cuts: 78% expect significant layoffs
Learn more in our complete DOGE analysis.
Trading Cabinet Markets
Key Catalysts to Watch
- Senate hearing dates: Testimony can swing odds dramatically
- Committee votes: First real test of Republican support
- New allegations: Opposition research often drops pre-hearing
- Trump tweets/posts: Presidential support signals
- Senator statements: Swing vote declarations move markets
Trading Strategy
- • Sell spikes: Initial controversy often overblown
- • Buy hearing dips: Tough questions rarely derail nominees
- • Watch vote counts: 50 Republicans needed (VP tiebreaker)
- • Recess appointments: Trump may bypass Senate entirely
Key Takeaways
- 86% odds of at least one cabinet departure by April 2025
- Pete Hegseth is the closest call at ~52% confirmation odds
- RFK Jr. expected to be confirmed despite vaccine controversies
- Intelligence picks (Gabbard, Patel) face scrutiny but likely confirmed
- Marco Rubio and Scott Bessent are near-certain confirmations
- Senate hearings are key catalysts for odds movement
Track Political Whale Moves
PolyTrack monitors large positions in cabinet markets—see which nominees smart money is betting on or against.
Frequently Asked Questions
Hegseth has approximately 52% confirmation odds—the closest call among cabinet nominees. Sexual assault allegations and alcohol concerns have raised doubts among some Republican senators.
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