9 min readPope Leo XIV: How Polymarket Missed the First American Pope
The 2025 papal conclave generated $40+ million in betting volume across Polymarket and Kalshi. When Robert Prevost was elected as Pope Leo XIV—the first American pope—his odds had been just 1-2%. Here's how prediction markets handled the historic election.
The Shocking Result
Pope Leo XIV Elected
- • Real name: Robert Francis Prevost
- • Nationality: American (Chicago-born)
- • Pre-election odds: 1-2%
- • Elected: May 8, 2025, fourth ballot
- • First American pope in Catholic Church history
Pre-Election Favorites
Polymarket Odds on Election Day
| Cardinal | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | 37% | Lost |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | 26% | Lost |
| Pierbattista Pizzaballa | 10% | Lost |
| Péter Erdő | 8% | Lost |
| Robert Prevost | 1-2% | Won |
Betting Volume and Winners
Market Statistics
| Platform | Volume |
|---|---|
| Polymarket | $20.2M+ |
| Kalshi | $20M+ |
| Total | $40M+ |
Big Winners
One bettor made $52,000 on a longshot bet by backing Prevost early. At 1-2% odds, winning bets returned 50-100x on investment.
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Timeline of Events
2025 Papal Succession
| February 14 | Pope Francis hospitalized with bronchitis |
| Late February | "New Pope in 2025" market launches at 33% |
| April 21 | Pope Francis dies; market surges to 99% |
| May 7-8 | Conclave held (4 ballots) |
| May 8 | Prevost elected as Leo XIV |
Who is Pope Leo XIV?
Background
- Born: Chicago, Illinois
- Education: Mathematics degree from Villanova University (1977)
- Ordained: 1982
- Pastoral work: Years of service in Peru
- Vatican role: Key figure before papacy
- Made Cardinal: 2023 by Pope Francis
Why Markets Missed It
- Not a frontrunner: Vatican watchers focused on Parolin, Tagle
- American factor: No American pope ever elected before
- Recent cardinal: Only made cardinal in 2023
- Conclave secrecy: No polling or leaks from cardinals
Controversy: Betting on the Pope
Ethical Debate
The papal betting markets sparked controversy:
- • Critics called betting on pope's health "morally questionable"
- • Some suggested it could "send you directly to Hell"
- • Historical papal gambling ban was actually lifted in 1918
- • No current canon law prohibits conclave betting
Lessons for Prediction Markets
Market Efficiency Failures
- Consensus bias: Markets heavily weighted "obvious" candidates
- Information limits: Conclave secrecy prevents inside information
- Longshot value: 1-2% odds massively undervalued Prevost
- Group dynamics: Cardinals can shift quickly across ballots
Trading Takeaways
- Diversify longshots: Small bets on many candidates can pay off
- Question consensus: When everyone agrees, look for value elsewhere
- Unique events: Conclaves have no historical pattern to model
- Information asymmetry: No one truly "knows" conclave outcomes
Related Markets
Following Leo XIV's election, new markets emerged:
- Papal visit to US: Will Leo XIV visit America in 2025?
- Vatican policy changes: Markets on church doctrine shifts
- Next conclave timing: Long-term papal succession markets
Key Takeaways
- Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost) elected at just 1-2% Polymarket odds
- First American pope in Catholic Church history
- $40M+ total betting volume across Polymarket and Kalshi
- Favorites Parolin (37%) and Tagle (26%) both lost
- Longshot bettors earned 50-100x returns
- Markets struggled with conclave's unique secrecy
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Frequently Asked Questions
Robert Prevost (now Pope Leo XIV) had just 1-2% odds on Polymarket before his election. Parolin led at 37%, followed by Tagle at 26%.
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