5 min readA Minecraft Movie Box Office: Polymarket Odds at 96% for Highest Grossing 2025
A Minecraft Movie has become the biggest box office story of 2025, and Polymarket traders are betting big on it. With $99 million in trading volume and 96% odds, the market overwhelmingly expects Minecraft to be the highest-grossing movie of the year. Here's the complete breakdown.
Market Snapshot
- A Minecraft Movie: 96% odds
- Avatar 3 (Fire and Ash): 3.3% odds
- Zootopia 2: <1% odds
- Lilo & Stitch: <1% odds
- Total Volume: $99 million
- Resolution: December 31, 2025
A Minecraft Movie Box Office Performance
Warner Bros.' A Minecraft Movie starring Jack Black and Jason Momoa has shattered expectations. The film opened to a record-breaking $163 million domestic and $313 million globally - the biggest opening ever for a video game adaptation.
Box Office Milestones
- Opening Weekend: $163M domestic / $313M global
- Week 2: $80.6M domestic (already 2025's top grosser)
- Week 3: $720M+ global (Easter weekend surge)
- Current Status: Racing toward $1 billion
The film is chasing The Super Mario Bros. Movie's $1.36 billion worldwide record ($575M domestic, $786M international). Given its momentum, Minecraft appears poised to become 2025's first billion-dollar movie.
Why 96% Odds Are Justified
The market's overwhelming confidence in Minecraft is backed by several factors:
- Massive head start: Already $700M+ ahead with months remaining
- No real competition: Avatar 3 releases December 19 - too late to catch up
- Franchise power: Minecraft has 140M+ monthly players worldwide
- Family-friendly legs: PG rating means strong holds through summer
The Only Threat: Avatar 3
Avatar: Fire and Ash (December 19) is the only film with theoretical upset potential. The original Avatar grossed $2.9 billion worldwide, and Avatar 2 made $2.3 billion. However, Avatar 3 would need to earn nearly all its 2025 gross in just 12 days (Dec 19-31) to beat Minecraft.
Resolution Criteria
The market resolves based on Box Office Mojo's "Gross" column for domestic calendar year 2025 earnings. Only 2025 dates count - Avatar 3's January 2026+ earnings won't count toward this market.
Related Polymarket Movie Markets
Polymarket has several related movie markets worth watching:
- Second Highest Grossing Movie 2025: Separate market for runner-up
- Biggest Opening Weekend 2025: Minecraft at 91%, Avatar at 8%
- Minecraft April 30 Box Office: Specific milestone market
Trading Opportunity Assessment
The Math
At 96 cents for YES, you're risking 96 cents to win 4 cents (4.2% return). At 4 cents for NO, you're risking 4 cents to potentially win 96 cents (24x return) - but you'd need Avatar 3 to massively overperform in just 12 days.
Unless you believe Avatar 3 will have the greatest 12-day domestic run in cinema history, YES on Minecraft is the play - though the risk/reward at 96 cents is thin. The real value was earlier in the year when odds were lower.
Trade This Market
View the market on Polymarket: Highest Grossing Movie in 2025
For more market analysis, check out our guides on Golden Globes & Oscars predictions and finding winning Polymarket traders.
Frequently Asked Questions
A Minecraft Movie leads at 96% odds, followed by Avatar 3 (Fire and Ash) at 3.3%, with Zootopia 2 and Lilo & Stitch both under 1%. The market has $99 million in trading volume.
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