10 min readCanada Election: Pierre Poilievre at 89% Odds After Trudeau Exits
After Trudeau's resignation announcement, Polymarket shows Pierre Poilievre at 89% odds to become Canada's next Prime Minister. The pro-crypto Conservative leader is poised for a historic victory with $500K+ in trading volume on the election market.
Current Canada Election Odds
Next Prime Minister Market
| Candidate | Party | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Pierre Poilievre | Conservative | 89% |
| Mark Carney | Liberal | 6% |
| Chrystia Freeland | Liberal | 3% |
| Other | Various | 2% |
Trading Volume
- • Next PM market: $493,000+ volume
- • Trudeau resignation: $1M+ volume (resolved)
- • Liberal leadership: $257,000+ volume
- • Election timing: $180,000+ volume
Trudeau's Resignation
What Happened
On January 6, 2025, Justin Trudeau announced he would step down as Liberal Party leader and Prime Minister after the party chooses his replacement:
- Approval rating collapse: Down to 22% per Angus Reid polling
- Polling disaster: Liberals projected to win just 46 seats vs Conservative 225
- Cabinet revolt: Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned days earlier
- 9-year tenure ending: PM since 2015, Liberal leader since 2013
Polymarket Resignation Market
The "Trudeau resigns by Friday" market jumped from 19% to 82% on January 6 before resolving, with over $1 million in trading volume.
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Who is Pierre Poilievre?
Pro-Crypto Conservative
- Bitcoin advocate: Has called for Canada to be a "Bitcoin capital"
- Anti-CBDC: Opposes central bank digital currency
- Crypto-friendly policies: Promises regulatory clarity
- Economic focus: "Axe the tax" campaign on carbon pricing
Political Background
- Conservative leader since 2022: Won leadership with 68% support
- MP since 2004: 20+ years in Parliament
- Former cabinet minister: Employment minister under Harper
- Social media savvy: Popular YouTube presence, targets younger voters
Liberal Leadership Race
Next Liberal Leader Odds
| Candidate | Leadership Odds | PM Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Carney | 45% | 6% |
| Chrystia Freeland | 37% | 3% |
| Other candidates | 18% | 2% |
Mark Carney Profile
- Former Bank of Canada Governor: 2008-2013
- Former Bank of England Governor: 2013-2020
- Goldman Sachs background: 13 years at the investment bank
- Economic credibility: Managed 2008 financial crisis response
Election Timeline Markets
When Will Election Be Called?
| Deadline | Odds |
|---|---|
| By March 31, 2025 | 72% |
| By June 30, 2025 | 88% |
| Constitutional deadline | October 20, 2025 |
Projected Seat Count
Polling Aggregator Projection
- • Conservatives: 225 seats (majority = 170)
- • Liberals: 46 seats
- • NDP: 35 seats
- • Bloc Québécois: 32 seats
If held today, Conservatives would win a historic supermajority.
Crypto Market Implications
A Poilievre government could significantly impact crypto regulation in Canada:
- Bitcoin ETF growth: Canada already leads in crypto ETFs
- Mining incentives: Potential tax benefits for crypto miners
- CBDC opposition: Unlikely to pursue digital loonie
- Stablecoin clarity: May follow US regulatory framework
Key Takeaways
- Pierre Poilievre at 89% odds to become Canada's next PM
- Trudeau's resignation triggered $1M+ in Polymarket volume
- Mark Carney leads Liberal leadership race at 45%
- 72% odds election called by March 31, 2025
- Conservatives projected for 225-seat supermajority
- Poilievre's pro-crypto stance could reshape Canadian regulation
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Frequently Asked Questions
Pierre Poilievre is at 89% odds on Polymarket to become Canada's next Prime Minister following Trudeau's resignation announcement.
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