10 min readCan Americans Use Polymarket? Complete US Guide (2025)
If you're in the United States, trading on Polymarket is complicated. Following a 2022 CFTC settlement, Polymarket blocked US-based users from trading. However, significant regulatory developments in 2025 have changed the landscape. This comprehensive guide explains the current status, why Polymarket was restricted, what the restrictions mean in practice, recent regulatory changes, and what legal alternatives exist for American traders interested in prediction markets.
Key Takeaways
- Current status: Polymarket remains officially blocked for US persons following 2022 CFTC settlement
- 2025 developments: Polymarket exploring US re-entry through regulatory pathways
- VPN risks: Using a VPN violates ToS and can result in frozen funds with no legal recourse
- Best alternative: Kalshi is the only CFTC-regulated prediction market for US traders
- You can still watch: View markets, track whale activity, and analyze trends via PolyTrack
- State matters: Some states have additional restrictions even on regulated platforms
- Future outlook: Regulatory environment may change under new administration policies
Current Status for US Users (January 2026)
Polymarket trading remains blocked for all US persons. Using a VPN violates their Terms of Service and may result in account termination and loss of funds. See December 2025 relaunch news for the latest developments on potential US access.
US Regulatory Status Timeline
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-2021 | Polymarket operates with US users | Full access |
| Jan 2022 | CFTC settlement ($1.4M) | US blocked |
| 2022-2024 | Geo-blocking enforced | No trading |
| Oct 2024 | Kalshi wins election market lawsuit | Regulatory shift |
| Nov 2024 | Polymarket 2024 election success | Mainstream attention |
| Dec 2025 | Polymarket explores US re-entry | In progress |
| 2026+ | Potential CFTC registration | TBD |
Table of Contents
- Why Polymarket Blocked US Users
- The 2022 CFTC Settlement Details
- What US Users CAN and CANNOT Do
- VPN Risks: Why You Shouldn't Try It
- Legal Alternatives for US Traders
- Kalshi: The Best US Alternative
- State-by-State Considerations
- How to Use Polymarket Insights Legally
- 2025 Regulatory Developments
- Will Polymarket Return to the US?
- FAQs
Why Polymarket Blocked US Users
Polymarket's US restrictions stem from how American regulators classify prediction markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) considers binary options on real-world events to be derivatives—financial instruments that require registration and regulatory oversight.
The Core Legal Issue
When you buy a Polymarket share, you're essentially buying a binary option:
- Binary option: Pays out $1 if an event happens, $0 if it doesn't
- CFTC view: This is a derivatives contract that must trade on a registered exchange
- The problem: Polymarket wasn't registered with the CFTC when it allowed US trading
- Result: Operating an unregistered derivatives exchange is illegal under US law
Key Point: The issue isn't that prediction markets are inherently illegal in the US—it's that they must be offered through regulated channels. Kalshi proved this by obtaining CFTC registration and now legally offers prediction markets to Americans.
The 2022 CFTC Settlement Details
In January 2022, Polymarket settled with the CFTC for operating an unregistered derivatives exchange. The settlement terms were significant:
| Requirement | Details |
|---|---|
| Financial penalty | $1.4 million civil monetary penalty |
| Cease operations | Stop offering event contracts to US persons immediately |
| Geo-blocking | Implement technology to block US-based users |
| Wind down positions | Allow existing US users to close positions and withdraw |
| Compliance controls | Establish ongoing compliance measures to prevent US access |
What This Means in Practice
The settlement created a permanent barrier for US users:
- IP addresses from the US are blocked from accessing trading features
- KYC verification rejects US identification documents
- Polymarket monitors for VPN usage and suspicious patterns
- Any account found to be US-based can be terminated
- Polymarket has no obligation to return funds to US users who circumvented blocks
What US Users CAN and CANNOT Do
✓ Allowed Activities
- • Browse all markets and view current odds
- • Read market descriptions and resolution criteria
- • View charts, historical data, and price movements
- • Access leaderboards and trader profiles
- • Use analytics tools like PolyTrack for research
- • Track whale activity and market trends
- • Share market links on social media
- • Access Polymarket API for data analysis
✗ Blocked Activities
- • Creating new trading accounts
- • Depositing USDC or any funds
- • Placing any trades (buy or sell)
- • Withdrawing funds (for legacy accounts)
- • Participating in liquidity provision
- • Market making activities
- • Earning from builder programs
- • Any activity requiring a connected wallet
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VPN Risks: Why You Shouldn't Try It
Some US users consider using a VPN to bypass Polymarket's geo-restrictions. This is a bad idea for multiple reasons:
Terms of Service Violation
Polymarket's Terms of Service explicitly prohibit:
- US persons from using the platform
- Using VPNs or other tools to circumvent geo-blocking
- Providing false information about location or identity
- Creating accounts while located in restricted jurisdictions
Real Consequences
| Risk | Consequence | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
| Account detection | Immediate account termination | Medium-High |
| Funds frozen | Unable to withdraw any balance | High if detected |
| Funds forfeited | Complete loss of deposited funds | Possible |
| No legal recourse | Can't sue—you violated ToS | Certain |
| Tax complications | Unreported income on illegal activity | If profitable |
How Polymarket Detects VPN Users
Polymarket uses multiple methods to identify US users attempting to circumvent restrictions:
- IP analysis: Detecting known VPN and datacenter IP ranges
- KYC verification: Requiring identity documents that show citizenship
- Behavioral patterns: Monitoring for suspicious trading times and patterns
- Payment trails: Tracking USDC sources that may link to US banks
- Device fingerprinting: Identifying users across multiple sessions
Bottom Line: The risk-reward is terrible. You could lose your entire balance with no way to recover it, all while violating both Polymarket's ToS and potentially US law. Legal alternatives exist—use them instead.
Legal Alternatives for US Traders
Several platforms legally offer prediction market or prediction-market-like products to US residents:
| Platform | Legal Status | Markets | Fees | Limits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | CFTC registered | Politics, economics, events | 1-7% on profits | High limits |
| PredictIt | CFTC no-action letter | Political only | 5% trade + 10% profit | $850/market |
| Metaculus | No real money | Science, tech, policy | Free | None |
| Good Judgment Open | No real money | Geopolitics, policy | Free | None |
| Manifold Markets | Play money* | Anything | Free | None |
*Manifold uses "mana" play money but allows charity donations based on winnings.
Kalshi: The Best US Alternative
Kalshi is the only CFTC-registered prediction market exchange in the United States. It's the closest legal equivalent to Polymarket for American traders.
Kalshi's Path to Legality
Understanding how Kalshi achieved legal status helps explain why Polymarket taking the same path is complex:
- 2018: Kalshi founded with goal of regulated prediction markets
- 2019-2020: Multi-year CFTC application process
- November 2020: CFTC grants Designated Contract Market (DCM) status
- 2021-2023: Limited market offerings while building infrastructure
- October 2024: Wins landmark lawsuit allowing election markets
- Late 2024: Major funding round and CNN partnership
- 2025: Robinhood integration brings mainstream access
Key Insight: Kalshi spent nearly 3 years in the CFTC application process before receiving approval. This timeline is important context for anyone waiting for Polymarket to enter the US market—regulatory approval takes significant time and resources.
Kalshi Advantages
- Fully regulated: CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market (DCM)
- 100% legal: No gray areas or risk of account termination
- USD deposits: Bank transfer, wire, or debit card—no crypto required
- Tax reporting: Provides 1099 forms for easy tax filing
- Institutional backing: $100M+ funding, CNN partnership
- Robinhood integration: Trade directly from your Robinhood account
- Legal recourse: Full consumer protections apply
Kalshi Market Categories
| Category | Example Markets | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|
| Politics | Elections, legislation, appointments | High |
| Economics | Fed rates, inflation, GDP, jobs | High |
| Finance | Stock prices, crypto, indices | Medium |
| Weather | Temperature, hurricanes, snowfall | Medium |
| Entertainment | Awards shows, box office | Medium |
Kalshi vs Polymarket Comparison
| Feature | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| US access | Yes (legal) | No (blocked) |
| Currency | USD | USDC (crypto) |
| Fees | 1-7% on profits | ~0% (some markets have fees) |
| Market variety | Good but limited | Very broad |
| Liquidity | Growing | Generally higher |
| Tax reporting | 1099 provided | DIY (complex) |
Kalshi Fee Structure
Understanding Kalshi's fee structure is important for comparing profitability with Polymarket's fee model:
| Fee Type | Kalshi | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Trading fee | $0.07 per contract (entry + exit) | Applied to each leg |
| Profit fee | 1-7% tiered based on volume | High-volume traders pay less |
| Deposit fee | Free (bank, debit) | Wire may have bank fees |
| Withdrawal fee | Free | 1-3 business days |
PredictIt: The Academic Alternative
PredictIt operates under a unique CFTC no-action letter that allows it to offer political prediction markets for academic research purposes. While more limited than Kalshi, it remains a legal option for US traders.
PredictIt Unique Characteristics
- Academic focus: Operated by Victoria University of Wellington for research
- Political only: Exclusively political event markets
- Position limits: Maximum $850 per market per user
- Higher fees: 5% on trades + 10% on profits
- Smaller markets: Lower liquidity than Kalshi or Polymarket
PredictIt Regulatory Status
PredictIt's legal status has been uncertain:
- 2014: CFTC issues no-action letter allowing operation
- 2022: CFTC announces it will revoke no-action letter
- 2023: PredictIt wins temporary court injunction
- 2024-2025: Legal battle continues, platform still operating
Caution: PredictIt's regulatory status remains uncertain. While the platform continues operating, the CFTC's attempt to revoke its no-action letter creates ongoing risk. For the most stable legal option, Kalshi is preferred.
When to Use PredictIt vs Kalshi
| Scenario | Best Platform | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Large political bets | Kalshi | No position limits, better liquidity |
| Small casual trades | Either | Both work fine under $850 |
| Economics/finance | Kalshi | PredictIt doesn't offer |
| Niche political races | PredictIt | Sometimes has more granular options |
| Long-term stability | Kalshi | Full CFTC registration vs uncertain letter |
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State-by-State Considerations
Even with federally-regulated platforms like Kalshi, some US states have additional restrictions:
| State Status | States | Kalshi Access |
|---|---|---|
| Full access | Most US states | Yes |
| Limited | Nevada (some markets restricted) | Partial |
| Restricted | Check current Kalshi ToS | Limited/No |
State restrictions typically relate to:
- State gambling laws conflicting with event contracts
- State-specific securities regulations
- Banking regulations affecting deposits/withdrawals
Tip: Always check the current Terms of Service for any platform before signing up. State availability can change as regulations evolve.
How to Use Polymarket Insights Legally
Even though US users can't trade on Polymarket, the platform remains valuable for research and analysis:
Information You Can Access
- Market odds: See real-time probability assessments for events
- Volume data: Understand which markets have conviction
- Whale tracking: Follow what large traders are doing
- Historical data: Analyze past market performance
- Market structure: See bid/ask spreads and depth
How to Apply Insights
- Research on Polymarket: Identify markets with strong whale consensus
- Find Kalshi equivalent: Look for similar markets on Kalshi
- Compare odds: Check if Kalshi prices diverge from Polymarket
- Trade legally: Execute on Kalshi at potentially better prices
- Monitor both: Use PolyTrack to continue watching Polymarket trends
Strategy: Polymarket often has more liquidity and faster price discovery. If you see a significant move on Polymarket, check Kalshi immediately—the Kalshi price may lag, creating an arbitrage-like opportunity.
Using PolyTrack for Research
PolyTrack helps US users extract maximum value from Polymarket data:
- Whale alerts: Get notified when top traders make moves
- Portfolio simulation: Track how a portfolio would perform
- Price alerts: Monitor markets for significant movements
- Analytics: Deep dive into market data and trader behavior
2025 Regulatory Developments
The prediction market regulatory landscape has evolved significantly in 2025, creating new possibilities for US market access:
Key Events Timeline
| Date | Event | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2024 | Kalshi wins election market lawsuit | Landmark: Political markets legal |
| Nov 2024 | Polymarket 2024 election accuracy gains attention | Mainstream legitimacy |
| Nov 2024 | New administration election | Potential policy shift |
| Jan 2025 | New administration takes office | Regulatory tone may change |
| Q1-Q2 2025 | CFTC leadership transitions | New appointees being named |
| Dec 2025 | Polymarket explores US entry | Re-entry discussions begin |
| 2026 | Expected regulatory developments | TBD—watch closely |
The Kalshi Election Victory Impact
Kalshi's October 2024 court victory was a watershed moment for prediction markets in the US:
- Background: CFTC tried to block Kalshi from offering election markets
- Ruling: Federal court ruled in Kalshi's favor, allowing political event contracts
- Precedent: Established that regulated platforms can offer election markets
- Timing: Kalshi launched election markets just before November 2024
- Implication: Opens path for other registered platforms to offer similar products
Why This Matters: The Kalshi ruling demonstrates that prediction markets on political events are legally permissible in the US when offered through proper regulatory channels. This could be the pathway Polymarket eventually uses to re-enter the US market.
Political Climate Shift
Several factors suggest a more favorable regulatory environment may emerge:
- Prediction markets proved valuable for forecasting during 2024 elections
- New administration has expressed interest in reducing regulatory barriers
- Kalshi's success demonstrates viable regulatory pathway exists
- Growing institutional interest in prediction markets for risk management
- Academic research supporting prediction market accuracy
Will Polymarket Return to the US?
Polymarket has several potential paths to US market re-entry:
| Path | How It Works | Timeline | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFTC registration | Apply as Designated Contract Market | 1-3 years | Medium |
| Acquire registered entity | Buy or partner with existing DCM | 6-18 months | Medium |
| Separate US entity | Create regulated US subsidiary | 1-2 years | Medium |
| Legislative change | New laws enabling prediction markets | 2-5+ years | Low |
| Regulatory change | CFTC modifies approach | 1-3 years | Medium |
Realistic Expectation: Don't hold your breath for Polymarket US access in 2026. Even with favorable regulatory shifts, obtaining proper registration takes time. Use legal alternatives like Kalshi today while monitoring developments.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Polymarket illegal in the USA?
Polymarket itself isn't "illegal"—it's a legitimate platform operating legally outside the US. However, US persons are prohibited from using it due to the 2022 CFTC settlement. Polymarket must block US users as a condition of that settlement. The distinction matters: viewing Polymarket isn't illegal, but trading on it as a US person violates their Terms of Service.
What happens if I use a VPN to access Polymarket from the US?
Using a VPN violates Polymarket's Terms of Service. If detected, your account can be terminated and your funds frozen or forfeited. You have no legal recourse since you violated their terms. Additionally, you may face tax complications for income from prohibited activities. The risk significantly outweighs any potential benefit—use legal alternatives instead.
What is the best Polymarket alternative for US users?
Kalshi is the best alternative for US traders wanting real-money prediction markets. It's CFTC-registered, accepts USD deposits via bank transfer, provides tax documents, and offers similar market categories. For political markets specifically, PredictIt is another option. For free forecasting practice, try Metaculus or Good Judgment Open.
Can I view Polymarket markets from the US?
Yes, US users can freely browse Polymarket markets, view odds, read descriptions, access leaderboards, and use analytics tools like PolyTrack. You can also access the Polymarket API for data analysis. Only trading activities (depositing, buying, selling, withdrawing) are blocked.
Will Polymarket come back to the US?
Possibly, but not soon. Polymarket is exploring US market re-entry through regulatory pathways—see our December 2025 relaunch coverage. Options include CFTC registration, acquiring a registered entity, or creating a separate US subsidiary. Any of these paths would take 1-3 years minimum. Don't expect US access in 2026.
Is Kalshi legal in all US states?
Kalshi is federally regulated but some states have additional restrictions. Most states have full access, but Nevada and potentially others may have limitations on certain market types. Always check Kalshi's current Terms of Service for your state before signing up. State availability can change as regulations evolve.
How do I report Kalshi trading on my taxes?
Kalshi provides 1099-B forms for your trading activity, making tax reporting straightforward. Prediction market gains are generally treated as short-term capital gains (taxed as ordinary income). See our prediction market tax guide for detailed information, though consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
Can US citizens living abroad use Polymarket?
Polymarket's terms restrict "US persons," which typically includes US citizens regardless of location. However, enforcement primarily relies on geo-blocking and KYC verification. If you're a US citizen living abroad with non-US documentation and banking, the situation is gray—but you'd still be violating the spirit of their ToS. Proceed with caution.
What happened to my old Polymarket account from before 2022?
When the CFTC settlement was implemented, existing US users were given time to close positions and withdraw funds. If you didn't withdraw during that window, your funds may be inaccessible. Contact Polymarket support directly for assistance with legacy accounts—they may have a process for handling these cases.
Are there any Polymarket-like crypto prediction markets legal in the US?
Currently, no crypto-based prediction markets are legal for US users. The CFTC treats prediction market tokens as derivatives requiring registration. Even decentralized platforms like Augur face regulatory scrutiny. For legal prediction market access, stick with CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi that use USD.
How accurate are Polymarket predictions compared to US alternatives?
Polymarket generally has higher liquidity and potentially better price discovery than US alternatives, though Kalshi is catching up. Both platforms performed well in 2024 election forecasting. For many markets, prices are similar between platforms. Use PolyTrack to monitor Polymarket odds as a research tool, then trade on Kalshi for legal execution.
Can I use Polymarket insights to trade on Kalshi?
Yes, and this is one of the best strategies for US traders. Monitor Polymarket for whale activity and price movements using PolyTrack, then look for equivalent markets on Kalshi. If Kalshi prices lag behind Polymarket moves, you may find favorable entry points. This is completely legal information arbitrage.
Related Articles
- → Is Polymarket Legal?
- → Polymarket US Relaunch News
- → Polymarket vs Kalshi Comparison
- → Polymarket Alternatives Guide
- → Polymarket vs PredictIt
- → Kalshi $1B Funding News
- → Prediction Market Tax Guide
- → Is Polymarket Safe?
- → Whale Tracking Complete Guide
- → Election Odds Guide
- → Polymarket Legal in UK
- → Polymarket Legal in Canada
Summary: US Traders' Best Options
Polymarket remains blocked for US users following the 2022 CFTC settlement. While there are signs of potential future US re-entry, don't expect access soon. Using a VPN to bypass restrictions is risky—you could lose your funds with no recourse.
Your best options: Use Kalshi for legal prediction market trading with full regulatory protection. Monitor Polymarket through PolyTrack for research insights and apply that knowledge to your Kalshi trades. This gives you access to Polymarket's superior price discovery while staying completely compliant with US regulations.
Track Polymarket Insights Legally
Even without trading access, you can still follow Polymarket odds and whale activity through PolyTrack. Use our insights to inform your trades on legal platforms like Kalshi. Track top traders and apply their strategies to US-compliant markets.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Regulations can change—always verify current rules before trading. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Consult with legal and financial professionals for advice specific to your situation.
Frequently Asked Questions
US residents are restricted from trading on Polymarket due to 2022 CFTC settlement. VPN usage violates terms of service.
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