7 min readHow to Read Polymarket Odds: Complete Beginner Guide
New to Polymarket? Understanding how odds work is crucial for profitable trading. Unlike traditional sports betting, Polymarket uses a simple system: the price equals the probability. This guide explains exactly how to read Polymarket odds, calculate profits, and find value bets. If you're brand new, start with our introduction to Polymarket.
Price = Probability
Polymarket's pricing is elegant in its simplicity:
Core Principle
$0.65 = 65% probability
If YES shares trade at $0.65, the market believes there's a 65% chance the event happens. YES + NO always sum to ~$1.00.
How Profit Works
Winning shares pay $1.00. Losing shares pay $0.00. Your profit depends on your entry price:
Example: Buy YES at $0.40
- Investment: 100 shares × $0.40 = $40
- If YES wins: 100 × $1.00 = $100 → $60 profit (150% ROI)
- If NO wins: 100 × $0.00 = $0 → $40 loss (100%)
Profit Formula
ROI if Win = ((1.00 - Buy Price) / Buy Price) × 100%Buy at $0.40 → ROI = (0.60 / 0.40) × 100 = 150%
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Quick Reference Table
| Price | Probability | ROI if Win |
|---|---|---|
| $0.10 | 10% | 900% |
| $0.25 | 25% | 300% |
| $0.40 | 40% | 150% |
| $0.50 | 50% | 100% |
| $0.65 | 65% | 54% |
| $0.80 | 80% | 25% |
YES vs NO Shares
Every market has two sides. If YES is $0.65, NO is roughly $0.35. You can bet either way:
- Buy YES: You think the event WILL happen
- Buy NO: You think the event WON'T happen
For political markets, check out our analysis of Polymarket election odds, or explore crypto predictions for cryptocurrency markets.
Finding Value Bets
Value exists when your estimated probability differs from the market price. This is where understanding win rates becomes crucial:
Value Bet Example
Market: "Will it rain tomorrow?"
Market price: YES at $0.45 (45% implied)
Your analysis: Weather forecast shows 70% rain chance
Edge: 70% - 45% = 25% value → Buy YES
Common Mistakes
- Confusing probability with certainty: 90% still means 10% chance of losing
- Ignoring the spread: Bid-ask gap eats into profits. See our fee guide.
- Overconfidence: The market aggregates many opinions—why do you know better?
- Chasing cheap shares: $0.05 shares are cheap for a reason
Avoid these and other pitfalls by reading our comprehensive guide on mistakes beginners make on Polymarket.
Ready to start? Check out our complete beginner's guide. Also review legal requirements and safety considerations before trading.
Learn from the Best
PolyTrack shows you what prices the most profitable traders are buying at. See their entries and learn from proven winners. Discover top traders to follow, learn about whale strategies, and track smart money movements.
Frequently Asked Questions
Prices represent probability. A 70-cent YES share means the market predicts 70% chance of that outcome occurring.
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