22 min readPolymarket BTC Price Brackets: Complete Guide to Bitcoin Price Markets
Polymarket Bitcoin price bracket markets let you bet on BTC/USDT price ranges for specific dates. These markets answer questions like "Will Bitcoin be between $92,000-$94,000 on December 31, 2025?" with settlement based on Binance BTC/USDT spot prices. This comprehensive 2026 guide explains how bracket markets work, settlement rules, trading strategies, and how to profit from BTC price predictions on Polymarket.
BTC price bracket markets are among Polymarket's most liquid and popular markets, attracting both retail traders and professional market makers. Understanding how these markets settle, which reference prices are used, and optimal trading strategies can significantly improve your profitability. High search volume: "polymarket binance btc/usdt december 31, 2025 price bracket" (45+ monthly impressions, 0% CTR). Professional traders use advanced analytics platforms like PolyTrack Pro to track which wallets consistently profit from BTC bracket markets, identifying winning strategies and optimal entry/exit timing.
🔑 Key Facts About BTC Price Brackets
- • Settlement: Binance BTC/USDT spot price at midnight UTC on settlement date
- • Bracket Range: Each market covers a specific price range (e.g., $92,000-$94,000)
- • YES/NO Tokens: Buy YES if price will be in bracket, NO if outside
- • Popular Dates: December 31, June 30, end-of-quarter dates
- • Liquidity: High liquidity with millions in volume per bracket
How BTC Price Bracket Markets Work
BTC price bracket markets on Polymarket work like binary options on Bitcoin price ranges. Each market asks a specific question: "Will BTC/USDT be between [LOWER] and [UPPER] on [DATE]?" Traders buy YES tokens (price will be in bracket) or NO tokens (price will be outside bracket).
Market Structure
Each bracket market consists of:
- • Price Range: Lower bound and upper bound (e.g., $92,000-$94,000)
- • Settlement Date: Specific date/time when BTC price is checked (typically midnight UTC)
- • YES Token: Pays $1 if BTC price is within bracket at settlement
- • NO Token: Pays $1 if BTC price is outside bracket at settlement
- • Market Type: Binary market with two outcomes
Example Market
Market Question:
"Will BTC/USDT be between $92,000 and $94,000 on December 31, 2025?"
Outcomes:
- • YES: BTC price ≥ $92,000 AND ≤ $94,000 at midnight UTC on Dec 31, 2025
- • NO: BTC price < $92,000 OR > $94,000 at midnight UTC on Dec 31, 2025
Current Prices (Example):
- • YES: $0.35 (35% probability BTC will be in bracket)
- • NO: $0.65 (65% probability BTC will be outside bracket)
If you buy YES tokens at $0.35 and BTC closes at $93,000 on December 31, 2025, your YES tokens pay $1.00 each, resulting in a 185% profit ($0.65 gain on $0.35 investment).
Settlement Rules: Binance BTC/USDT Reference Price
All BTC price bracket markets settle using Binance BTC/USDT spot price. Understanding exactly how settlement works is crucial for successful trading.
Settlement Process
- 1. Settlement Time: Price checked at midnight UTC (00:00:00) on the settlement date
- 2. Reference Exchange: Binance BTC/USDT spot trading pair
- 3. Price Source: Official Binance spot price, not futures or perpetuals
- 4. Price Determination: Last traded price on Binance at midnight UTC
- 5. Resolution: If price within bracket → YES pays $1, NO pays $0. If outside → NO pays $1, YES pays $0
⚠️ Important Settlement Details
- • Always Binance: Settlement uses Binance, not Coinbase, Kraken, or other exchanges
- • Spot Price Only: Binance BTC/USDT spot, not BTC/USDT perpetual futures
- • Midnight UTC: Settlement happens at 00:00:00 UTC on the specified date
- • Boundary Inclusive: Price exactly at $92,000 or $94,000 means YES wins
- • No Price Manipulation: Binance is too large to manipulate, ensuring fair settlement
December 31, 2025 Brackets (High Search Volume)
Common search: "polymarket binance btc/usdt december 31, 2025 price bracket" (45+ monthly impressions). Polymarket typically offers multiple brackets for December 31, 2025:
| Price Bracket | Typical YES Price | Market Width |
|---|---|---|
| $88,000 - $90,000 | ~$0.15 - $0.25 | $2,000 range |
| $90,000 - $92,000 | ~$0.20 - $0.30 | $2,000 range |
| $92,000 - $94,000 | ~$0.25 - $0.40 | $2,000 range |
| $94,000 - $96,000 | ~$0.30 - $0.45 | $2,000 range |
| $96,000 - $98,000 | ~$0.25 - $0.35 | $2,000 range |
| $98,000 - $100,000 | ~$0.20 - $0.30 | $2,000 range |
Note: Actual bracket ranges and prices vary based on market conditions and BTC current price. Brackets typically cover $2,000-$5,000 ranges, with tighter brackets around expected price levels having higher YES prices.
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Trading Strategies for BTC Price Brackets
1. Mean Reversion Strategy
If BTC price has moved significantly away from the bracket range, mean reversion traders buy the cheap outcome:
- • Example: BTC currently at $95,000, bracket is $92,000-$94,000
- • If YES is cheap ($0.20): Buy YES expecting BTC to drop back into bracket
- • Risk: BTC could continue trending away from bracket
- • Best for: Short timeframes with strong technical support/resistance
2. Momentum Strategy
Follow BTC price momentum and buy brackets in the direction of the trend:
- • Example: BTC trending upward, currently at $92,500
- • Buy YES on $94,000-$96,000: If trend continues, BTC likely to reach upper bracket
- • Risk: Trends can reverse, especially near major price levels ($100k)
- • Best for: Strong directional moves with clear catalyst
3. Volatility Play
Buy wide brackets when volatility is low, expecting volatility to increase:
- • Example: BTC consolidating, volatility compressed
- • Buy wider brackets: $90,000-$96,000 instead of $92,000-$94,000
- • Logic: Higher volatility increases probability of price reaching wider ranges
- • Risk: Low volatility can persist, leaving price in narrow range
4. Arbitrage Between Brackets
Find pricing discrepancies between overlapping brackets:
- • Example: $92k-$94k YES at $0.30, $94k-$96k YES at $0.40
- • If BTC likely at $94k: Both brackets could win, creating arbitrage
- • Buy both: If price exactly at $94k, both YES tokens pay out
- • Risk: Market may already price this in, or price may settle elsewhere
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Understanding Bracket Prices and Probabilities
The price of YES/NO tokens reflects the market's implied probability of BTC being in or out of the bracket:
| YES Price | Implied Probability | NO Price | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| $0.10 | 10% | $0.90 | Market thinks bracket unlikely |
| $0.30 | 30% | $0.70 | Moderate probability |
| $0.50 | 50% | $0.50 | Market uncertain |
| $0.70 | 70% | $0.30 | Market thinks bracket likely |
| $0.90 | 90% | $0.10 | Market very confident |
Expected Value Calculation
Calculate expected value to determine if a bracket trade is profitable:
Expected Value Formula:
EV = (Probability × Win Amount) - (Probability × Loss Amount)
Example:
- • Buy YES at $0.30 (30% implied probability)
- • If you think true probability is 50%:
- • EV = (0.50 × $0.70) - (0.50 × $0.30) = $0.35 - $0.15 = $0.20 positive EV
- • Positive EV means the trade is profitable in the long run
Risks and Considerations
Settlement Risk
BTC price can be very volatile near settlement time. Price might be in your bracket all day, then move out at the last minute:
- • Flash Crashes: Sudden price movements near midnight UTC can change outcomes
- • Low Liquidity Hours: Midnight UTC may have lower liquidity, increasing volatility
- • No Control: You cannot influence Binance price at settlement
- • Mitigation: Consider wider brackets or earlier exits if price is near boundary
Liquidity Risk
Some brackets may have low liquidity, making it difficult to enter or exit positions:
- • Wide Spreads: Low liquidity brackets may have large bid-ask spreads
- • Price Impact: Large orders can move prices significantly
- • Best Practice: Use limit orders (maker orders) with 0% fees for better execution
Time Decay
As settlement date approaches, bracket prices converge toward certainty:
- • Early Entry: More uncertainty = wider range of possible prices
- • Near Settlement: Prices reflect actual BTC proximity to bracket
- • Strategy: Enter early for better prices, exit near settlement if profit is secure
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Conclusion
BTC price bracket markets on Polymarket offer unique opportunities to profit from Bitcoin price predictions with clear settlement rules based on Binance BTC/USDT spot prices. Understanding how brackets work, settlement mechanics, and optimal trading strategies can significantly improve your profitability.
Always remember that BTC can be volatile near settlement time, and bracket prices reflect market probabilities. Use limit orders to minimize fees, calculate expected value before entering positions, and consider tracking successful bracket traders to learn proven strategies.
Related Resources
Frequently Asked Questions
BTC price bracket markets settle using Binance BTC/USDT spot price at midnight UTC (00:00:00) on the settlement date. If BTC price is within the bracket range at that time, YES tokens pay $1.00. If outside the bracket, NO tokens pay $1.00.
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